As confirmation, while talking to my real estate working friend in Napa California..
"its crazy," she says, shaking her head slowly in amazement. "its like its started all over again.. each listing is coming back with multiple cash offers above asking"
We have a Double Bubble on our hands.
And yes, with respect to real estate in Napa, many are first time buyers, and people getting back into the housing market in order to have a home in which to live.
But the is an enormous amount of speculation in both the housing and stock market driven by artificially low interest rates, is very schetchy...
Inventory of houses is tight, due to speculation, artificially driving up these prices again for the live in home owner.
"They are doing it again," She says, " ..there is no way this house is worth that much."
And the ability for foreign interests to so easily buy a piece of America, is quite startling.
I mean, there is only one reason some other country has not come purchased a large contiguous chunk of America, just as just happened in Grease, a foreign interest purchased a few Greek Islands while there pants are down.
So, what is preventing foreign interests from causing another crash, and taking the money out of the country just as has happened in the last financial crash we just experienced. international interests profiting from financial collapse, and then profiting again by loaning us our own money back to bail us out... not to say there isnt enough blame to be evenly distributed among most industrial nations.
The solution, as the title of this blog suggests, is to get big money out of our politics.. moderately tax, and heavily regulate financial speculation in this country.
I highly recommend this read: Columbia University hosted a very tight study on what happened, and what should be done:
http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/null?&exclusive=filemgr.download&file_id=70150
History will call this era the "financial wild west". Quite uncivilized. One day we will all be forced to comply.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Front and Center - the left splits in half
The coming revolution is as sure as rain.
If there is any result of the Arab spring that will capture the attention of history, is the resulting irony of revolution in the US.
Why, we ask, did the Arab spring catch like wildfire across the middle east?
Simply because people witnessed the sheer power of protest, and how truly unstoppable it is.
The only component necessary, after the full disclosure of the actual risks of such a revolution, is the level of angst to outweigh the costs.
The costs of revolution through protest, thought to be quite high, has been discovered to be much less, causing a global adjustment to the cost/benefit equation of revolution.
There is now less of a threshold, a lower necessary level of discontent necessary to tip the scale.
Does any one think, after witnessing the Arab spring, that we cannot bring down any government on earth with simple passive resistance alone? Quite clearly, we can.
So, the threshold of pain has yet to be reached in the US. But when and if it does, we will not need to take up arms against anyone. The revolution will happen at the right time, and the people will be ready to form a new government when that time is right.
I listen to the Obama Democrats, as I call them, or those who voted for Obama twice.. and what I hear astounds me.
Obama is an obvious conservative, if anyone knows what the term means in context. Not only does the left not protest his imperialist military policies, but they stand in line to worship the man. Some of these same people were student leaders protesting the Vietnam war in the 60's. Hippies into Yuppies, they abandoned their principles in the booming 90's and haven't looked back.
I have to laugh when people talk about the banks causing the housing crash. It was personal greed, for the most part. I watched it all around me at the time. People took what they could get, with little concern for the big commune. These are the hippies, now driving hybrids and eying their 401ks.
Noam Chomsky and Cornel West both talk about how the values of the 'left' changed from social welfare to the protection of personal freedoms, ie civil liberties and the like. There was a time when lifting a citizen out of poverty was the central liberal agenda, as opposed to abortion rights, global warming, labor union protection and the like.
People talk about the extreme right and their salacious ideas, but the left has shrunk so far as to only include those who participated in the Occupy movement, those who mostly protest the voting system for lack of authenticity, and a majority of despondent and apathetic give-upers who have also chosen the selfish path.
And from this motley crew, we will find the leader of the next great American revolution.
If there is any result of the Arab spring that will capture the attention of history, is the resulting irony of revolution in the US.
Why, we ask, did the Arab spring catch like wildfire across the middle east?
Simply because people witnessed the sheer power of protest, and how truly unstoppable it is.
The only component necessary, after the full disclosure of the actual risks of such a revolution, is the level of angst to outweigh the costs.
The costs of revolution through protest, thought to be quite high, has been discovered to be much less, causing a global adjustment to the cost/benefit equation of revolution.
There is now less of a threshold, a lower necessary level of discontent necessary to tip the scale.
Does any one think, after witnessing the Arab spring, that we cannot bring down any government on earth with simple passive resistance alone? Quite clearly, we can.
So, the threshold of pain has yet to be reached in the US. But when and if it does, we will not need to take up arms against anyone. The revolution will happen at the right time, and the people will be ready to form a new government when that time is right.
I listen to the Obama Democrats, as I call them, or those who voted for Obama twice.. and what I hear astounds me.
Obama is an obvious conservative, if anyone knows what the term means in context. Not only does the left not protest his imperialist military policies, but they stand in line to worship the man. Some of these same people were student leaders protesting the Vietnam war in the 60's. Hippies into Yuppies, they abandoned their principles in the booming 90's and haven't looked back.
I have to laugh when people talk about the banks causing the housing crash. It was personal greed, for the most part. I watched it all around me at the time. People took what they could get, with little concern for the big commune. These are the hippies, now driving hybrids and eying their 401ks.
Noam Chomsky and Cornel West both talk about how the values of the 'left' changed from social welfare to the protection of personal freedoms, ie civil liberties and the like. There was a time when lifting a citizen out of poverty was the central liberal agenda, as opposed to abortion rights, global warming, labor union protection and the like.
People talk about the extreme right and their salacious ideas, but the left has shrunk so far as to only include those who participated in the Occupy movement, those who mostly protest the voting system for lack of authenticity, and a majority of despondent and apathetic give-upers who have also chosen the selfish path.
And from this motley crew, we will find the leader of the next great American revolution.
Monday, January 14, 2013
War on terror and global domination
It is amazing how efficient the suppression and control of information has become, in the main stream US press..
What started as a 'war on terror', in revenge for 911, has increasingly merged with existing struggles of global domination, after the Arab Spring in particular, pitting old foes against each other upon 'terrorist' fighting lines.
The cold war is not over. In fact, Russian aggression in Georgia while the US was over burdened with Iraq and Afghanistan, is a clear indication that Russia is capable, willing, and looking for the opportunity to take territory.
The stalemate in Syria is one of the most brutal of US policies, harking back to the encouragement of civil wars in Aria, conflicts like Afghanistan v Russia, Iraq v Iran. The US war mongers love the idea of Islamists dying to fight Iranian and Russian secret service and militia, not to mention depleting the strength of Syrian state.
The US learned from the arming of the Mugahadeen in fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan that they may very well morph into a al Qaeda like entity, able to turn the fighting skills and weapons provided by the US, back on the US in time... The US learned not to arm or train them, just to get them to fight effectively enough to create a stalemate against another enemy (in this case Assad in Syria)
The US is happy to see the coalescing of Islamist groups, given how difficult it has been to find and bomb them into submission. How wonderful it would be, for our WWII style military, built to take and hold land. Stand there and let us shoot at you.. sounds silly, but we figured out how to get Islamists to not only show themselves, in Iraq and Afghanistan, but to get them to stand up and fight our enemies.
I dont think the US military is smart or talented enough to make that happen by design, but since it has materialized, the US brass is all over supporting and perpetuating the situation.
The modernization of the military, or so Obama called it, is all about being everywhere, irrespective of declarations of war, or map bound conflict over land.
The US decided not to follow international law, quite some time ago now. Part of that, is not playing by the rules of engagement up to that point. No declaration of war necessary, no need to hold territory, no need to send public personnel, using technology to blur the lines of the old paradigm. - For example, we now do business with our enemies, as long as our conflicts are low on the public radar. (Russia, China)
What we thought would be a war of information and espionage, has also been a war of evolving methodology in how to use that information (drone strikes, political and social manipulation, for example). Managing stability of nations, or the lack thereof, has been the key to the new global war.
The Arab spring has provided a large opportunity for the US. Both the Muslim brotherhood movement and the fall of dictators we didnt favor. In general, the middle east is unstable, just like we want it. We dont want them to become too powerful, in a state kind of way, ie Iran. Its much better to see the tribal fiefdoms all across the middle east, not able to organize any major military to threaten the global position of the US. Its a risky strategy, but thats what we are going with, given the results of the Arab spring to date.
I think we learned from what Al Qaeda tried to do in Iraq, when they started car bombing opposite sides of old religious and cultural lines of conflict in Iraq in order to cause instability. We figured that was a great tactic, even though it didnt work for Al Qaeda of Iraq, with our resources and military sophistication, we could do that same trick much more effectively. I think this is now playing itself out in Syrian policy.
The US will go after the militants that gather, or recruit significant followings.. like in Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, parts of Indonesia, for example, as long as they are not busy fighting our enemies. I think they like the idea of a situation like Mali, where there is a visible force to defeat, especially if Europe foots most of the bill.
Where the Islamists do not solidify into a fighting force of size, we will attack them with commandos and drones.
We have military in over 130 countries or so.. its hard to count at this point. There is little hope of a change in strategy like long term economic engagement, or appeasement and recognition of those who want to live under Sharia law. Our support and cooperation with Saudi Arabia should be an example of how we can peacefully work with conservative Islamic states, not a reason for us to abandon relations with other Islamic states that may develop in northern Africa.
What started as a 'war on terror', in revenge for 911, has increasingly merged with existing struggles of global domination, after the Arab Spring in particular, pitting old foes against each other upon 'terrorist' fighting lines.
The cold war is not over. In fact, Russian aggression in Georgia while the US was over burdened with Iraq and Afghanistan, is a clear indication that Russia is capable, willing, and looking for the opportunity to take territory.
The stalemate in Syria is one of the most brutal of US policies, harking back to the encouragement of civil wars in Aria, conflicts like Afghanistan v Russia, Iraq v Iran. The US war mongers love the idea of Islamists dying to fight Iranian and Russian secret service and militia, not to mention depleting the strength of Syrian state.
The US learned from the arming of the Mugahadeen in fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan that they may very well morph into a al Qaeda like entity, able to turn the fighting skills and weapons provided by the US, back on the US in time... The US learned not to arm or train them, just to get them to fight effectively enough to create a stalemate against another enemy (in this case Assad in Syria)
The US is happy to see the coalescing of Islamist groups, given how difficult it has been to find and bomb them into submission. How wonderful it would be, for our WWII style military, built to take and hold land. Stand there and let us shoot at you.. sounds silly, but we figured out how to get Islamists to not only show themselves, in Iraq and Afghanistan, but to get them to stand up and fight our enemies.
I dont think the US military is smart or talented enough to make that happen by design, but since it has materialized, the US brass is all over supporting and perpetuating the situation.
The modernization of the military, or so Obama called it, is all about being everywhere, irrespective of declarations of war, or map bound conflict over land.
The US decided not to follow international law, quite some time ago now. Part of that, is not playing by the rules of engagement up to that point. No declaration of war necessary, no need to hold territory, no need to send public personnel, using technology to blur the lines of the old paradigm. - For example, we now do business with our enemies, as long as our conflicts are low on the public radar. (Russia, China)
What we thought would be a war of information and espionage, has also been a war of evolving methodology in how to use that information (drone strikes, political and social manipulation, for example). Managing stability of nations, or the lack thereof, has been the key to the new global war.
The Arab spring has provided a large opportunity for the US. Both the Muslim brotherhood movement and the fall of dictators we didnt favor. In general, the middle east is unstable, just like we want it. We dont want them to become too powerful, in a state kind of way, ie Iran. Its much better to see the tribal fiefdoms all across the middle east, not able to organize any major military to threaten the global position of the US. Its a risky strategy, but thats what we are going with, given the results of the Arab spring to date.
I think we learned from what Al Qaeda tried to do in Iraq, when they started car bombing opposite sides of old religious and cultural lines of conflict in Iraq in order to cause instability. We figured that was a great tactic, even though it didnt work for Al Qaeda of Iraq, with our resources and military sophistication, we could do that same trick much more effectively. I think this is now playing itself out in Syrian policy.
The US will go after the militants that gather, or recruit significant followings.. like in Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, parts of Indonesia, for example, as long as they are not busy fighting our enemies. I think they like the idea of a situation like Mali, where there is a visible force to defeat, especially if Europe foots most of the bill.
Where the Islamists do not solidify into a fighting force of size, we will attack them with commandos and drones.
We have military in over 130 countries or so.. its hard to count at this point. There is little hope of a change in strategy like long term economic engagement, or appeasement and recognition of those who want to live under Sharia law. Our support and cooperation with Saudi Arabia should be an example of how we can peacefully work with conservative Islamic states, not a reason for us to abandon relations with other Islamic states that may develop in northern Africa.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
The second great depression and the Occupy movement of 2012.
It was almost ten years ago now, I was warning my friends who were buying houses they could not afford, that they were sitting of a bubble about to burst.
Yes, I thought it would be a 20% adjustment, the banking system was banking on a government bailout, and would get it.
What I didnt see, was how the ill timing of the retooling of the US economy, from a manufacturing to a service, and intellectual property based economy, and the increasing equalization of wages due to globalization, in conjunction with a %35 miss-speculation on the housing market, caused global ramifications in the solvency of nation states.
I knew the banks were lending money they knew would not be repaid, to make money on the transaction, write off the loss, and get bailed out in the end.. all while each employees within those banks kept getting raises and bonuses.
The hire ups in the banks figured out they would make more money with a collapse and subsequent bailout, reaping the benefits of the booming business all the way up..
.. being sure to sell at the top.. as on the way down, one could take the million dollar severance, blow a kiss to the regulatory bodies of the US government, and retire to Florida.
It's all a shell game that is a bit to obvious to play. Except we have no choice.
Due to corporate influence in US politics, there is little effective regulatory reaction to what led to the global financial crisis. I have read that the financial industry, in their infinite wisdom, could not have imagined getting away with what they did, and are now able to continue at will. I am told they are downright giddy that they made a lot of money during the 'crash' and are excited to see the game continue.
Speculation is still a huge part of the daily amout of dollars spent in the stock market. Anyone, including absolutely huge stock brokerages, or fund managers, can bet in the failure of whatever they want to see fail, including the US government.
The buying and selling of nothing more than knots of mathematics, imaginary products of risk and tolerance. Bets that create economies of perverse intensive.
Economies of perverse incentive, people. This is not a good thing.
We want out systems of economies, and yes we can and should guide them.. we want them to be built on positive relationships and intensives. ie, healthy competition drives innovation and efficiency, that is good for the economy.
This is what we should have learned about why Communism wasnt efficient at providing social welfare - the incentive to compete was absent, creating disincentive to be creative, or work harder to make more, in fact you are working harder and making the same, in effect making less.
So, we have not, to this point, proposed or passed any meaningful regulation to change to rid our system of its perverse incentives, or the rampant speculation as its main source of funding.
This is because big business, including the banking system, have nearly complete control of the US political system, at this point.
I already see a bubble developing in the way Chinese and Indian growth is funded, not to mention Brazil.
The problem for us is, and this post is here to predict, that the next financial collapse will be without bailout, leading to a painful global depression. This next crash could bring most all of us back to per-industrial living conditions due to a lack of capital investment in small buiness.
My guess is we have 20 or so years before it goes down, so to speak. Enjoy it while we can, and prepare for rough seas ahead... as the greedy will hold on to our system, like a pitbull will hold onto its prey long after the dog is dead.
The Occupy Oakland movement is just the beginning here in the states. The Arab Spring has inspired the movement, and has reminded everyone across the world of the power of protest.
Especially in Syria, if the protests are successful there, in the face of such brutality, that will send a strong message to the US as well.
This may be as simple as getting the corporate right to person-hood revoked, and getting all public elections publicly funded by a general tax... or as simple as a 'separation of corporation and state' amendment (28th!!).
In the end, the corporations couldn't govern the people if it wanted to, so they will fail in politics. Its just a matter of time until they are kicked out due to incompetence and the power given back to the actual electorate. I just hope its a swift kick in the butt, so we can get back to prospering as a country.
Yes, I thought it would be a 20% adjustment, the banking system was banking on a government bailout, and would get it.
What I didnt see, was how the ill timing of the retooling of the US economy, from a manufacturing to a service, and intellectual property based economy, and the increasing equalization of wages due to globalization, in conjunction with a %35 miss-speculation on the housing market, caused global ramifications in the solvency of nation states.
I knew the banks were lending money they knew would not be repaid, to make money on the transaction, write off the loss, and get bailed out in the end.. all while each employees within those banks kept getting raises and bonuses.
The hire ups in the banks figured out they would make more money with a collapse and subsequent bailout, reaping the benefits of the booming business all the way up..
.. being sure to sell at the top.. as on the way down, one could take the million dollar severance, blow a kiss to the regulatory bodies of the US government, and retire to Florida.
It's all a shell game that is a bit to obvious to play. Except we have no choice.
Due to corporate influence in US politics, there is little effective regulatory reaction to what led to the global financial crisis. I have read that the financial industry, in their infinite wisdom, could not have imagined getting away with what they did, and are now able to continue at will. I am told they are downright giddy that they made a lot of money during the 'crash' and are excited to see the game continue.
Speculation is still a huge part of the daily amout of dollars spent in the stock market. Anyone, including absolutely huge stock brokerages, or fund managers, can bet in the failure of whatever they want to see fail, including the US government.
The buying and selling of nothing more than knots of mathematics, imaginary products of risk and tolerance. Bets that create economies of perverse intensive.
Economies of perverse incentive, people. This is not a good thing.
We want out systems of economies, and yes we can and should guide them.. we want them to be built on positive relationships and intensives. ie, healthy competition drives innovation and efficiency, that is good for the economy.
This is what we should have learned about why Communism wasnt efficient at providing social welfare - the incentive to compete was absent, creating disincentive to be creative, or work harder to make more, in fact you are working harder and making the same, in effect making less.
So, we have not, to this point, proposed or passed any meaningful regulation to change to rid our system of its perverse incentives, or the rampant speculation as its main source of funding.
This is because big business, including the banking system, have nearly complete control of the US political system, at this point.
I already see a bubble developing in the way Chinese and Indian growth is funded, not to mention Brazil.
The problem for us is, and this post is here to predict, that the next financial collapse will be without bailout, leading to a painful global depression. This next crash could bring most all of us back to per-industrial living conditions due to a lack of capital investment in small buiness.
My guess is we have 20 or so years before it goes down, so to speak. Enjoy it while we can, and prepare for rough seas ahead... as the greedy will hold on to our system, like a pitbull will hold onto its prey long after the dog is dead.
The Occupy Oakland movement is just the beginning here in the states. The Arab Spring has inspired the movement, and has reminded everyone across the world of the power of protest.
Especially in Syria, if the protests are successful there, in the face of such brutality, that will send a strong message to the US as well.
This may be as simple as getting the corporate right to person-hood revoked, and getting all public elections publicly funded by a general tax... or as simple as a 'separation of corporation and state' amendment (28th!!).
In the end, the corporations couldn't govern the people if it wanted to, so they will fail in politics. Its just a matter of time until they are kicked out due to incompetence and the power given back to the actual electorate. I just hope its a swift kick in the butt, so we can get back to prospering as a country.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Free Topo Map of SF Bay
After looking for a half an hour for a simple topo map of the bay area.. thought Id post it here so you all can find it easier..
Thursday, October 2, 2008
The stock market, Corporate influence in politics
Firstly, lets be aware that the stock market is not the economy, but a reflection of current conditions in addition to a quantifiable estimation of future conditions.
When i worked with Morgan Stanley, in their financial adviser training program, i was able to see the inside of the operation with unique 'outside' eyes.
The first thing i noticed, is that advisers were being asked to sell particular products, as opposed to listening to the client and finding the best financial products that may help him/her in their financial goals.
The second thing i could immediately see was awry - at least half of the staff of prospective advisers were professional gamblers.... shorting their way to a decent income to break into the business. They were like poker junkies.. some openly showing classic signs of addiction.
Yes, the market needs investors so firms can raise capital through the sale of public stock... ya ya ya...
It's the huge hedge funds shorting stocks in specific markets, influencing the market to dip, with automatically triggered sell orders. One only has to have an idea of where the triggers lay.
The speculation has reached revolutionary complexity, as a science.
Take a look at the Dow chart above.... see when it started to fluctuate wildly.... funny how its in the mid 90's. The exact time a significant number of 'investors' started practically applying the computer to speculation.
This is our first encounter with the classic 'Robot' question, of science fiction novels of the 70's.. what we have here, is independently acting financial 'robots' that react instantaneously to perceived risk, according the preprogrammed and regularly faulty algorithms.
The instantaneous nature of the robots actions removes the markets isolation from rumor and unfounded speculation.
In the past, a rumor would start, and before anyone could buy or sell any stock over the misinformation, the rumor was put to rest with confidently stated fact by respected people, calming the market.
Think of it, like the financial market released thousands of robots on the streets of New York to beg for change.. ends up, through A. I., they figured out how to mug.
What else changed in the market at the time? market regulation? slightly... End of the cold war... not really. The end of Mork and Mindy?? perhaps. ... it was a good run...
Funny how the feds ended short selling as soon as it bit them in the but.
The 'bailout', if it does not lead to large changes on Wall Street, as far as the way people invest and the way the speculate on the market, they we are just delaying the enevitable pain of change.
After the 'Tech bubble' of the 90's, i thought that the dow would be flat at 10k for 10 years.. here we are... I was amazed that the adjustment has taken so long.
Who expected F and F, with the help of the feds, to start giving away money in a huge barn sale of cash.
These people were giving loans to people with no down payment, and no proof of income. Tell me they did not know what they were doing.
I remember thinking at the time, how can this be good business? They must be counting on the government to bail them out when this house of cards falls... no way, i thought, they wouldnt make such a huge gamble...
... unless they were very very sure they were going to be bailed out in the end.
You see... every one who is involved in the loaning of money was making money on this, if the fat cats at the top dont have to pay for the barn sale of cash, they all make out well.
The only people who dont do well, are the people who did not take the cash giveaway, because they knew better than to get into a wildly adjustable mortgage, like myself. These people will pay for all the idiots and greedy people who got us into this mess. These people need the tax relief, as they are the innocent in this situation.
Let me get this right... i cant borrow money for my little drum building business because greedy people on Wall Street and stupid people in Main Street messed everything up... and i have to pay $2300 to be reminded of why i can not get my micro-loan. And when i do have the %20 down payment, the bank will not be there for my responsible, but ill timed, moment to earn the American dream.
The people who defaulted on the loan this quickly, they shouldn't have been in the house buying mode. The people who will barely keep 'their' homes, will get some help from the tax payers, poor and rich alike.. i dont feel bad for these people. They are home owners, who will be very happy with the price of their house 30 years from now. I doubt any will think of repaying the poor tax payers who supported them, when they sell their house for a profit.
The influence of the donation of funds to politicians from those who would profit from a bailout of this situation is well documented.
In particularly interested in the political contribution history of F and F, The National Association of Realtors PAC, and Hedge fund managers contributions to politics.
Check out the following link... NAR all of a sudden, kicked in with millions in contributions out of nowhere in 2007 and 2008. Look at how it was spread evenly between dems and republicans... look at the top 10 contributors list, and see how no other contributor is so balanced in its contributions.. convenient, when you are trying to get a bill past both the house and senate.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/expend.php?cycle=2008&cmte=C00083279
Take a look at the influence of Hedge funds in our broken system:
http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=F2700
And the financial greed mongers and what they are buying:
http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=F07
Check out the top contributing industries over the past few years... if you add real estate, financial services, securities and investments, the banking industry, etc... all the complicit actors.. you see that it is the largest contribution to the politicians who are voting to bail them out.
And Fannie and Freddie??
According to opensecrets.org, 'Current members of Congress have received a total of $4.8 million from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with Democrats collecting 57 percent of that.'
And the following members of congress have personal investments in the same companies they are bailing out:
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/09/congressmen-may-have-lost-17-m.html
In the end, they will choke on their money, as it can not isolate them from what they have done.
We (kids, grand kids etc) are left to clean up the mess.
Does anyone remember Tea Pot Dome??
Tony
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